The Post-COVID-19 Era, Price Hikes, and the Heat Wave – the 2023 Strong Sellers Ranking Reveals Various Changes in the Business Environment
In 2023, people became more active due to the May downgrade of COVID-19 to category 5 under Japan’s infectious disease prevention law. What kind of products sold well this year? Using SRI+® (National Retail Store Panel Survey), retail store sales data collected from approximately 6,000 stores nationwide, we look back at which fast-moving consumer goods sold particularly well.
Conspicuous Inbound Consumption and the Influence of De-masking
Fig.1 shows the year-on-year sales value ranking of fast-moving consumer goods categories through May 2023.
Fig.1
In 1st place was cardiotonic medicine. Pharmaceuticals claiming benefits for palpitations, shortness of breath, and faintness topped the list at 183% year on year. During the COVID-19 pandemic, these products were at the top of the struggling sales rankings, but sales have recovered rapidly with the increase in foreign travelers. Vitamin B1 preparations, which are also popular among visitors to Japan, ranked 4th (148%), with vitamin C preparations (132%) coming in 13th place and intestinal medicine (131%) at 14th place, thanks to strong domestic demand in addition to the inbound demand.
Lipstick (164%) came in 2nd. In addition to the decrease in outings, since the cosmetic is for a part of the face covered by a medical mask, the sales value for lipstick decreased dramatically in 2021 to about 1/3 of what it was before the pandemic, but it has returned to over 80% of its 2019 sales value. Blush, used on cheeks that had been covered by medical masks, also ranked 7th (139%). Of items to be applied to lips, similar to the case with lipstick, lip balm (135%) ranked 11th. The results gave a sense of the trend of people no longer wearing medical masks.
Outbreaks of Various Infectious Diseases Drove Strong Performance in the Infectious Disease Control Category
Infectious diseases have increased as people become more active and the rate of wearing medical masks has decreased. Due in part to an increase in COVID-19 patients in the summer, diagnostic test kits*1 (159%) ranked 3rd. The main contributor was antigen test kits*1 for the novel coronavirus, with the type that can test via saliva becoming popular.
However, the sales value of diagnostic test kits has decreased year-on-year since the beginning of October, and there are some signs that the pandemic is ending (Fig.2).
Fig.2
In addition to COVID-19, over-the-counter drugs performed well amid the spread of various infectious diseases, such as the common cold and influenza. Sale of combination cold medicines (143%) in 5th place, cough suppressant and expectorants (139%) in 6th place, oral medicines (137%) in 10th place, and similar products have been much higher this year than in the previous year and higher even than before the pandemic.
The Impact of the Heat Wave and Price Hikes on Strong Sellers
This summer was very hot. The average temperature in Japan during the summer months (June to August) was the highest since statistics started being recorded. In central Tokyo, the maximum temperature was 30°C or higher for 64 days until September, which was the longest period of late summer heat on record. Prices have also continued to rise, affecting daily life. Let us take a look at how these two influences show up in what products sold well, by extending the ranking to 30 places (Fig.3).
Fig.3
First, the impact of the heat wave. Tanning products and sunscreen (138%), ranking 9th, saw a major boost. Since July, when the temperature has been particularly high, sales have increased due to strong sunshine and sweating more than in typical years, probably due to on-the-go use, with mist types being especially popular. Drinks such as fruit juice drinks (123%), ranking 18th, beauty and health drinks (121%), ranking 21st, and mineral water (119%), ranking 22nd, also increased significantly. As the demand for measures against heatstroke increased, sales of products making health claims, such as being rich in vitamins and dietary fiber, increased.
Now let us turn to the impact of price hikes. Prices went up for a wide range of products, but there were no replacements even when prices soared, which led to strong sales volume being reflected in the rankings. In addition to cat food in 23rd place (117%) and baby formula in 26th place (115%), paper products have gradually increased in price since the beginning of this year, with tissue paper in 29th place (114%) and disposable adult diapers in 30th place (114%).
A Look Back at the Top Sellers during the Pandemic
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been dramatic changes from year to year in the trend of what has been sold. Let us look back at those transitions (Fig.4).
Fig.4
In 2020, the first year of the pandemic, sales of sanitary products, which can be called the three sacred treasures of the COVID-19 era, exploded with medical masks in 1st place, disinfectants in 2nd place, and thermometers in 3rd place. I think many will recall that medical masks disappeared from stores all over Japan as if they had evaporated.
In 2021, due in part to the prolonged curtailment of outings and the demand for products that enable an enjoyable home life, food products that appealed to health and other products that enhanced people’s time at home came to the top, such as oatmeal in 1st place, malt beverages in 2nd place, and toy maker confectionery in 3rd place.
Then in 2022, diagnostic test kits were 1st place, oatmeal was 2nd place, and motion sickness medicine was 3rd place, which started to reveal the situation of carrying on with life during the pandemic, from measures against COVID-19 to motion sickness medicine used during travel. In addition, this year the factors affecting the rankings have diversified, such as the influence of inbound visitors.
Sanitary Products Top the Struggling Sales Rankings
Finally, let us take a look at the struggling sales rankings this year (Figure 5). Sanitary products, the sales of which had greatly expanded during the pandemic, ranked highest, with thermometers (61%) coming in 1st, disinfectants (72%) in 2nd place, medical masks (75%) at 3rd, and mouthwash (87%) at 7th.
Fig.5
Since the summer, when temperatures soared due to the heat wave, the sales value of medical masks in particular has fallen to the 60% range compared with the previous year. Even in the city, a big change was felt as the number of people wearing masks decreased. Still, the sales value of these sanitary products remains well above the pre-pandemic levels.
Malt beverages (82%) in 5th place and oatmeal (83%) at 6th, which likewise saw strong sales growth during the pandemic, were also down. However, compared with their sales values in 2019, malt beverages are at 187% and oatmeal is still at 1,067%, indicating that these products have become a fixture in people’s lives.
Categories relating to the demand for products that enable an enjoyable home life, which became a hot topic during the pandemic, are also suffering. Products such as household gloves (90%) in 8th place and household wax (90%) at 9th seem to be affected by the increase in outings.
In addition to factors in Japan, such as the novel coronavirus, the heat wave, and price hikes, there have been ongoing events such as wars overseas that have significantly changed people’s lives and behavior. What will the consequences be? INTAGE plans to continue publishing its Strong Sellers Ranking.
*1: Antigen test kits for COVID-19, included in the diagnostic test kits category, were only those products for medical and non-prescription (OTC) use that INTAGE was able to identify (the category excludes antigen test kits for research use)
[SRI+® (nationwide retail store panel survey)] Retail store sales data based on daily sales information continuously collected from approximately 6,000 stores nationwide including supermarkets, convenience stores, home centers/discount stores, drugstores, and specialty stores, boasting the No. 1*1 sample number and chain coverage among retail store panels in Japan. *SRI+ statistically processes data, and does not disclose any information that could identify the stores monitored in the survey. *1 As at Nov. 2023
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