When do people buy Valentine’s chocolates? The mountain of demand seen in daily data
Valentine’s Day is almost upon us again this year. This event is changing year by year, with obligatory chocolate gifts for workmates fading out, along with chocolate gifts for friends mainly among young people catching on. Nonetheless, chocolate remains central to this excitement. It’s a visibly special feature in a variety of sales sections from mid-January onwards.
This article will track the buildup in sales towards the day using purchase data gathered from approximately 6,000 retail stores nationwide including supermarkets, convenience stores, and drugstores and SRI+® (nationwide retail store panel survey) daily data *not including department stores.
The buildup in chocolate during the Valentine’s period
Fig 1 presents the daily sales figures for chocolate in 2023 as observed in SRI+.
Fig 1
While a gentle increase is observed from several weeks beforehand, sales increase sharply on the weekend of February 11th immediately before Valentine’s Day, with sales peaking on the day on February 14th. To examine whether this trend is the same each year, we examined data for the past six years from 2018 in terms of changes in sales just before Valentine’s Day (Fig 2).
Fig 2
While a common trend for “sales to increase from the weekend directly before Valentine’s” is observed annually, sales peaked the day before on February 13th up to 2021, yet shifted on February 14th from 2022. In addition, the scale of daily sales has not returned to its pre-covid levels in 2019 and earlier since its decline in 2020 amidst the covid crisis, indicating how Valentine’s is celebrated has changed through the crisis.
In a survey conducted by INTAGE before Valentine’s Day in 2023, upon asking people who responded they “would reduce the total budget they would spend on chocolate” why they would do so, they gave responses such as “Because I’m going to restart giving the handmade chocolate that I’d held off giving up until last year”, “Because I’m no longer giving obligatory chocolate gifts” and “Because I’m refraining from buying any due to inflation”. It thus seems the covid crisis along with inflation are both impacting Valentines Day chocolate purchase behavior.
When the buildup occurs by chocolate type and channel
Let’s take a closer look at changes in sales. While a variety of chocolates are available on the market, let’s focus on “special event chocolate” sold for Valentine’s Day and White Day, and “cracked chocolate”, often used as an ingredient in handmade chocolate.
Fig 3 presents results comparing each type’s sales levels for each day, with the average sales level per day around Valentine’s Day set at 100. A slight peak is observed on the weekends two weeks and one week beforehand for both special event chocolate and cracked chocolate, indicating people who are quick to take action are starting to examine them on weekends. In addition, chocolate overall peaks at 176 on February 14th on Valentine’s Day, while cracked chocolate experiences a focused peak at 408 on the weekend directly before on February 11th, and special event chocolate starts building up the weekend directly before on February 11th to over 200, and peaks on the 13th, the weekday the day before.
Fig 3
With handmade chocolate, consumers buy their ingredients quite early on and make them on a weekend, while those who buy Valentine’s Day chocolates buy them at the last minutes the day before.
The peak with special event chocolate was also observed to differ depending on the channel. On comparison of the peaks in sales at supermarkets versus convenience stores, the peak at supermarkets was the day before on February 13th, compared with on the day on February 14th at convenience stores, when sales rapidly rose to 561 (Fig 4).
Fig 4
Convenience stores have limited shelving, so the proportion they make up of the overall scale of special event chocolate sales is small at several percent, but is indicative of its important role in meeting demand with people who buy and gift on the day.
The first Valentine’s since covid turned class 5 – How will consumers behave this year?
This year is the first Valentine’s Day since covid turned a class 5 infection. The return of more opportunities to meet people in real life is also expected to give rise to more opportunities to give chocolate. This should also lower the bar for handmade chocolate. We have reported on consumers growing tired of economizing, and going on to purchase expensive desserts and confectionary amidst inflation in our Shiru Gallery reports. Some people may be buying expensive chocolates for themselves as well.
This year, Valentine’s Day 2024 is on a Wednesday, preceded by a three-day long weekend from February 10th to 12th. 2018 had the same configuration of days of the week, with a buildup in sales sections from the 10th (Fig 2). I intend to follow sales going forward to track the extent of buildup this year.
[SRI+® (Nationwide retail store panel survey)] This retail store sales data collects daily sales data continuously from approximately 6,000 stores nationwide including supermarkets, convenience stores, home centers, discount stores, drugstores, and specialty stores, and boasts the largest sample design size and chain coverage among domestic retail store panels*1. *SRI+ is statistically processed, and does not disclose any information that can identify survey monitor stores. *1 As of January 2024
Author profile
Riko Narumoto
Joined INTAGE as a new graduate in 2023. Responsible for the operation of SRI+ panel data for soft drinks. Also engaged in the organization and management of the data received from companies, which is the source of its panel data.
Her love of chocolate has led her to write articles about Valentine’s Day.
Narumoto has a diverse range of hobbies including reading, listening to K-pop, and gaming. She is particularly fond of Osamu Dazai
Joined INTAGE as a new graduate in 2023. Responsible for the operation of SRI+ panel data for soft drinks. Also engaged in the organization and management of the data received from companies, which is the source of its panel data.
Her love of chocolate has led her to write articles about Valentine’s Day.
Narumoto has a diverse range of hobbies including reading, listening to K-pop, and gaming. She is particularly fond of Osamu Dazai
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