In this article, we tracked the buildup in sales leading up to the day using purchase data gathered from approximately 6,000 retail stores nationwide including supermarkets, convenience stores, and drugstores and SRI+® (nationwide retail store panel survey) daily data *not including department stores.
While Valentine’s Day is synonymous with chocolate, a variety of return gifts exist with White Day including chocolate, candy, marshmallows, and cookies, with consumers of the impression no one go-to typical set gift exists. So, what sales sections actually pick up towards White Day? Fig 1 presents the daily sales value for chocolate, candy, and biscuits & crackers (including cookies) in 2023 as observed in SRI+.
Fig 1
On examination of the two months from February including Valentine’s Day, we see that firstly chocolate sales levels are high in the lead up to Valentine’s Day on February 14th, and then drop off sharply after Valentine’s Day. Sales levels also clearly increase several days before White Day on March 14th.
Let’s examine this data once again, focusing on the period after the Valentine’s Day pick up (Fig 2).
Fig 2
While it is apparent chocolate sales increase from the weekend directly beforehand of March 11 to on the day on March 14th, the shift in candy and biscuit & cracker sales is not as pronounced. At least in terms of the reciprocal gifts bought in the stores consumers normally use including supermarkets, convenience stores, and drugstores, the go-to appears to be chocolate.
When do White Day-oriented products pick up?
From this point onwards, let’s examine the data with a focus on the types of chocolate that displayed particular movement in the leadup to White Day. We’ll look at “special event chocolate” and “variety mixes” in this article. “Special event chocolate”, as the name suggests, are products created for events like White Day. Conversely, “variety mixes” are chocolate assortments that mainly enable people to enjoy a variety of flavors of chocolate, and are often individually wrapped making them easy to pass around.
Fig 3 presents results comparing each type’s sales levels each day, with the average sales value level per day around White Day set at 100.
Fig 3
While chocolate as a whole was observed to peak on March 14th, with sales levels remaining a relatively low 126. However, special event chocolate sales levels exceeded 300 on the day before and the Sunday a day before that, indicating that it was purchased extensively during this period. A similar trend was observed with variety mixes.
Let’s now examine this data by channel. On Valentine’s Day, this same special event chocolate was purchased differently depending on the channel, peaking the day before at supermarkets, yet peaking on the day at convenience stores. How does White Day compare here? (Fig 4). *Sales of varieties mixes at convenience stores were low, so are omitted here.
Fig 4
Firstly, on comparison of special event chocolate trends across channels, the peak at convenience stores was on the day, akin to Valentine’s Day. However, taking the fact this score jumped sizably to 561 on Valentine’s Day, comparatively few people appear to rush to buy on the day on White Day. On the other hand, the peak at supermarkets was not only on the day before, but the Sunday before that as well. A certain extent of people who can’t choose of a weekday appear to but on the weekend just before White Day.
In addition, on observation of trends with variety mixes at supermarkets, the peak was the day before, unlike special event chocolate. What was the reason for this difference?
Many of the best-selling special event chocolates are the sorts of premium brand chocolates also sold in department stores. These are the sorts of products presented with a special feel to them near supermarket service counters at this time of year. Looking at the units sold by price range, 600~699-yen items sold particularly well, with many 1000~1999-yen items also sold. Many variety mixes are presented on regular shelves, making them relatively casually purchasable products. Over 60% of them were 300~399-yen products in terms of ratio of sales units by price range. They thus may represent differences in outlook, with some “choosing something special when they have the time” and others “quickly choosing something that can be casually enjoyed”.
Surprising trends seen in day-by-day data
Lastly, I’d like to introduce some interesting trends that I noticed when examining the data this time. As also seen in Fig 2, in the shifts in sales before and after White Day, chocolate sales rise in a pinpoint way on Tuesday February 28th (Fig 5). These sales were comparable to those on the weekend just before White Day, despite being a weekday.
Fig 5
This day was actually the day a campaign that struck a chord with the otaku demographic was launched, where you could win associated goods if you bought specific chocolate products at convenience stores. Upon filtering down to chocolate sales only in convenience stores, the results show that sales were higher this day than they were on White Day. Sales of products other than those targeted by the campaign also increased on this day, indicative of the momentum of otaku demographic consumption.
We have examined sales trends on two occasions – Valentine’s Day and White Day – to date using daily data. Examining day-specific trend data offers insight into the consumer behavior of a variety of consumers, such as careful purchasers, last-minute purchasers, and otaku consumers in real life. There are a variety of consumer events throughout the year. Examining day-specific data before and after these events may illuminate new consumer behavior.
[SRI+® (Nationwide retail store panel survey)] This retail store sales data collects daily sales data continuously from approximately 6,000 stores nationwide including supermarkets, convenience stores, home centers, discount stores, drugstores, and specialty stores, and boasts the largest sample design size and chain coverage among domestic retail store panels*1. *SRI+ is statistically processed, and does not disclose any information that can identify survey monitor stores. *1 As of March 2024
Author profile
Riko Narumoto
Joined INTAGE as a new graduate in 2023. Responsible for the operation of SRI+ panel data for soft drinks. Also engaged in the organization and management of the data received from companies, which is the source of its panel data.
Her love of chocolate has led her to write articles about Valentine’s Day.
Narumoto has a diverse range of hobbies including reading, listening to K-pop, and gaming. She is particularly fond of Osamu Dazai.
Joined INTAGE as a new graduate in 2023. Responsible for the operation of SRI+ panel data for soft drinks. Also engaged in the organization and management of the data received from companies, which is the source of its panel data.
Her love of chocolate has led her to write articles about Valentine’s Day.
Narumoto has a diverse range of hobbies including reading, listening to K-pop, and gaming. She is particularly fond of Osamu Dazai.
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